Academic Journal
Cyclone Gabrielle as a Design Storm for Northeastern Aotearoa New Zealand Under Anthropogenic Warming
| العنوان: | Cyclone Gabrielle as a Design Storm for Northeastern Aotearoa New Zealand Under Anthropogenic Warming |
|---|---|
| المؤلفون: | Dáithí A. Stone, Christopher J. Noble, Greg E. Bodeker, Sam M. Dean, Luke J. Harrington, Suzanne M. Rosier, Graham D. Rye, Jordis S. Tradowsky |
| المصدر: | Earth's Future, Vol 12, Iss 9, Pp n/a-n/a (2024) |
| بيانات النشر: | Wiley, 2024. |
| سنة النشر: | 2024 |
| المجموعة: | LCC:Environmental sciences LCC:Ecology |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | Environmental sciences, GE1-350, Ecology, QH540-549.5 |
| الوصف: | Abstract Cyclone Gabrielle passed along the northern coast of Aotearoa New Zealand in February 2023, producing historic rainfall accumulations and impacts. Gabrielle was an ex‐tropical cyclone that stalled and re‐energised off the north coast, resembling descriptions of worst case scenarios for the northeast of the country. Here we report on a comparison of the actual forecast of the storm against forecasts under conditions representative of a climate without anthropogenic interference and of a climate +2.0°C warmer than pre‐industrial (about 1.0°C cooler and warmer than present respectively). We find that regional total rainfall accumulations from a Gabrielle‐like storm are about 10% higher because of the historical anthropogenic warming, and will increase by a larger amount under similar future warming. These differences are driven by a 20% (relative to a non‐anthropogenic world) to 30% (relative to a +2.0°C world) rise in peak rainfall rates, which in turn is mainly driven by a more temporally concentrated column‐integrated moisture flux. The forecast model generates the larger increase for the +2.0°C world through greater precipitation efficiency, reflecting the importance of unresolved precipitation processes in the climate change response of rainfall extremes. |
| نوع الوثيقة: | article |
| وصف الملف: | electronic resource |
| اللغة: | English |
| تدمد: | 2328-4277 |
| Relation: | https://doaj.org/toc/2328-4277 |
| DOI: | 10.1029/2024EF004772 |
| URL الوصول: | https://doaj.org/article/3c9b46f72b1042b99c86faa650bb5a60 |
| رقم الانضمام: | edsdoj.3c9b46f72b1042b99c86faa650bb5a60 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | Directory of Open Access Journals |
Full Text Finder | تدمد: | 23284277 |
|---|---|
| DOI: | 10.1029/2024EF004772 |