Academic Journal
Nowcasting (Short-Term Forecasting) of Influenza Epidemics in Local Settings, Sweden, 2008–2019
| العنوان: | Nowcasting (Short-Term Forecasting) of Influenza Epidemics in Local Settings, Sweden, 2008–2019 |
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| المؤلفون: | Armin Spreco, Olle Eriksson, Örjan Dahlström, Benjamin John Cowling, Matthew Biggerstaff, Gunnar Ljunggren, Anna Jöud, Emanuel Istefan, Toomas Timpka |
| المصدر: | Emerging Infectious Diseases, Vol 26, Iss 11, Pp 2669-2677 (2020) |
| بيانات النشر: | Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2020. |
| سنة النشر: | 2020 |
| المجموعة: | LCC:Medicine LCC:Infectious and parasitic diseases |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | influenza, viruses, Sweden, respiratory diseases, vaccine-preventable diseases, epidemiology, Medicine, Infectious and parasitic diseases, RC109-216 |
| الوصف: | The timing of influenza case incidence during epidemics can differ between regions within nations and states. We conducted a prospective 10-year evaluation (January 2008–February 2019) of a local influenza nowcasting (short-term forecasting) method in 3 urban counties in Sweden with independent public health administrations by using routine health information system data. Detection-of-epidemic-start (detection), peak timing, and peak intensity were nowcasted. Detection displayed satisfactory performance in 2 of the 3 counties for all nonpandemic influenza seasons and in 6 of 9 seasons for the third county. Peak-timing prediction showed satisfactory performance from the influenza season 2011–12 onward. Peak-intensity prediction also was satisfactory for influenza seasons in 2 of the counties but poor in 1 county. Local influenza nowcasting was satisfactory for seasonal influenza in 2 of 3 counties. The less satisfactory performance in 1 of the study counties might be attributable to population mixing with a neighboring metropolitan area. |
| نوع الوثيقة: | article |
| وصف الملف: | electronic resource |
| اللغة: | English |
| تدمد: | 1080-6040 1080-6059 |
| Relation: | https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/11/20-0448_article; https://doaj.org/toc/1080-6040; https://doaj.org/toc/1080-6059 |
| DOI: | 10.3201/eid2611.200448 |
| URL الوصول: | https://doaj.org/article/c15037ae44bc40e9b6fbe29e5db8db2a |
| رقم الانضمام: | edsdoj.15037ae44bc40e9b6fbe29e5db8db2a |
| قاعدة البيانات: | Directory of Open Access Journals |
Full Text Finder | تدمد: | 10806040 10806059 |
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| DOI: | 10.3201/eid2611.200448 |