Dissertation/ Thesis
Uncertainty quantification methodology for seismic fragility curves of mechanical structures : Application to a piping system of a nuclear power plant ; Méthodologie de quantification des incertitudes pour courbes de fragilité sismique de structures mécaniques : Application à un système de tuyauterie d'une centrale nucléaire
| العنوان: | Uncertainty quantification methodology for seismic fragility curves of mechanical structures : Application to a piping system of a nuclear power plant ; Méthodologie de quantification des incertitudes pour courbes de fragilité sismique de structures mécaniques : Application à un système de tuyauterie d'une centrale nucléaire |
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| المؤلفون: | Gauchy, Clément |
| المساهمون: | Centre de Mathématiques Appliquées de l'Ecole polytechnique (CMAP), Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria)-École polytechnique (X), Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut Polytechnique de Paris, Josselin Garnier |
| المصدر: | https://theses.hal.science/tel-04102809 ; Statistics [math.ST]. Institut Polytechnique de Paris, 2022. English. ⟨NNT : 2022IPPAX100⟩. |
| بيانات النشر: | HAL CCSD |
| سنة النشر: | 2022 |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | Seismic reliability, Uncertainty quantification, Design of experiments, Gaussian process, Nuclear industry, Fiabilité sismique, Quantification des incertitudes, Planification d'expériences, Processus Gaussien, Industrie nucléaire, [MATH.MATH-ST]Mathematics [math]/Statistics [math.ST], [STAT.ME]Statistics [stat]/Methodology [stat.ME], [STAT.ML]Statistics [stat]/Machine Learning [stat.ML] |
| الوصف: | Nuclear power plants are complex engineering systems for which reliability has to be guaranteed during its operational lifetime due to the hugely negative consequences provoked by nuclear accidents to human health or to the environment. The effects of natural hazards such as earthquakes on these facilities are included in the risk analysis but are difficult to estimate because of their randomness. Since the 1980s, a probabilistic seismic risk assessment framework has been developed to evaluate the reliability of structures, systems and components (SSC) of nuclear facilities against seismic risk. This framework is relying on a specific quantity of interest: the seismic fragility curve. At the scale of these facilities, these curves represent the conditional probabilities of failure of the SSCs given a scalar value derived from a seismic loading indicating its "strength" and which is called seismic intensity measure. The management of the various sources of uncertainty inherent to the problem to be addressed is often divided into two categories: (i) the so-called random uncertainties that arise from the natural variability of physical phenomena that are difficult to measure or control, and (ii) the so-called epistemic uncertainties that are associated with the lack of knowledge of the system under study and that can be reduced, in the short term, by means of experimental campaigns for example. In seismic probabilistic risk assessment studies for the nuclear industry, the main source of random uncertainty is the seismic loading and the sources of epistemic uncertainties are attributed to the mechanical parameters of the structure considered. In this framework, this thesis aims at understanding the effect of epistemic uncertainties on a seismic fragility curve by using an uncertainty quantification methodology. However, as numerical mechanical models are often computationally expensive, a metamodeling step, based on Gaussian process regression, is proposed. In practice, the sources of epistemic uncertainties are ... |
| نوع الوثيقة: | doctoral or postdoctoral thesis |
| اللغة: | English |
| Relation: | NNT: 2022IPPAX100 |
| الاتاحة: | https://theses.hal.science/tel-04102809 https://theses.hal.science/tel-04102809v1/document https://theses.hal.science/tel-04102809v1/file/121106_GAUCHY_2022_archivage.pdf |
| Rights: | info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
| رقم الانضمام: | edsbas.F7A39596 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | BASE |
| الوصف غير متاح. |