Academic Journal
Flood frequency analysis with the GEV distribution for r-annual events ; Análisis de frecuencias de crecientes con la distribución GVE para r eventos anuales
| العنوان: | Flood frequency analysis with the GEV distribution for r-annual events ; Análisis de frecuencias de crecientes con la distribución GVE para r eventos anuales |
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| المؤلفون: | Campos-Aranda, Daniel Francisco |
| المصدر: | Tecnología y ciencias del agua; Vol. 12 Núm. 4 (2021): julio-agosto; 163-218 ; 2007-2422 ; 0187-8336 ; 10.24850/j-tyca-2021-v12-n4 |
| بيانات النشر: | Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua (IMTA) |
| سنة النشر: | 2021 |
| المجموعة: | Tecnología y ciencias del agua (E-Journal) |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | distribución GVE, método de máxima verosimilitud, algoritmo Complex, variables de decisión y dependientes, test de Wald-Wolfowitz, error estándar de ajuste, covariables, predicciones, GEV distribution, maximum likelihood method, complex algorithm, decision and dependent variables, Wald-Wolfowitz test, standard error of fit, covariates, predictions |
| الوصف: | Floods are the maximum annual flows of a river and their frequency analysis are statistical techniques that allow estimating values associated with low probabilities of being exceeded. Such predictions allow the hydrological design and review of hydraulic works. The fundamental stage of frequency analysis is the selection and fit, to the available data or sample, of a probability distribution function to make predictions. The generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution has theoretical bases that make it a probabilistic model suitable for floods, maximum sea levels, extreme wind speeds, etc. Due to its genesis, the GEV processes one data per year, the maximum. This disadvantage has been overcome with the method of the r annual maximum events. Such procedure is described and applied to the adjustment of the GEV function, through the maximum likelihood method, using the Complex algorithm of multiple restricted variables, for numerical maximization. Five records of floods with five events per year were integrated from hydrometric stations of the Hydrological Region No. 10 (Sinaloa), Mexico. Also, two records of maximum sea levels with r = 5 were processed, taken from specialized literature; one of them is non-stationary since it shows a trend. Results were analyzed and the predictions of the GEV adjustment with r annual events, were compared against those of the classical methods of moments L and LH. Finally, conclusions are formulated, which highlight the convenience of the described method and point out the advantages of using the Complex algorithm as a numerical technique; due to the above, the systematic application of the described procedure is recommended. ; Las crecientes son los gastos máximos anuales de un río y su análisis de frecuencias son técnicas estadísticas que permiten estimar valores asociados con bajas probabilidades de ser excedidos. Tales predicciones permiten el diseño y la revisión hidrológica de las obras hidráulicas. La etapa fundamental del análisis de frecuencias consiste en seleccionar y ... |
| نوع الوثيقة: | article in journal/newspaper |
| وصف الملف: | application/pdf |
| اللغة: | Spanish; Castilian English |
| Relation: | http://www.revistatyca.org.mx/ojs/index.php/tyca/article/view/2654/2341; http://www.revistatyca.org.mx/ojs/index.php/tyca/article/view/2654/2342; http://www.revistatyca.org.mx/ojs/index.php/tyca/article/view/2654 |
| DOI: | 10.24850/j-tyca-2021-04-04 |
| الاتاحة: | http://www.revistatyca.org.mx/ojs/index.php/tyca/article/view/2654 https://doi.org/10.24850/j-tyca-2021-04-04 |
| Rights: | Derechos de autor 2021 Tecnología y ciencias del agua ; https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ |
| رقم الانضمام: | edsbas.ECBC3BA3 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | BASE |
| DOI: | 10.24850/j-tyca-2021-04-04 |
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