Academic Journal
Aerosol and ozone changes as forcing for climate evolution between 1850 and 2100
| العنوان: | Aerosol and ozone changes as forcing for climate evolution between 1850 and 2100 |
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| المؤلفون: | Laval-Szopa, Sophie, Balkanski, Yves, Schulz, Michael, Bekki, Slimane, Cugnet, David, Fortems-Cheiney, Audrey, Turquety, Solène, Cozic, Anne, Déandreis, Céline, Hauglustaine, Didier, Idelkadi, Abderrahmane, Lathière, Juliette, Lefèvre, Franck, Marchand, Marion, Vuolo, Maria Raffaella, Yan, Nicolas, Dufresne, Jean-Louis |
| المساهمون: | Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)), Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA), Modélisation du climat (CLIM), Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)), Modelling the Earth Response to Multiple Anthropogenic Interactions and Dynamics (MERMAID), STRATO - LATMOS, Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X), Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-École nationale des ponts et chaussées (ENPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS-PSL, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL), Calcul Scientifique (CALCULS), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL), Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X), Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) (INSU-LEFE French Program under the project MIS- TERRE and by the PRIMEQUAL project called Salut’air., Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales (CNES) |
| المصدر: | ISSN: 0930-7575. |
| بيانات النشر: | CCSD Springer Verlag |
| سنة النشر: | 2013 |
| المجموعة: | Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines: HAL-UVSQ |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | Modeling, Climate-chemistry, Ozone, Radiative forcing, Aerosols, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph], [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes |
| الوصف: | International audience ; Global aerosol and ozone distributions and their associated radiative forcings were simulated between 1850 and 2100 following a recent historical emission dataset and under the representative concentration pathways (RCP) for the future. These simulations were used in an Earth System Model to account for the changes in both radiatively and chemically active compounds, when simulating the climate evolution. The past negative stratospheric ozone trends result in a negative climate forcing culminating at −0.15 W m −2 in the 1990s. In the meantime, the tropospheric ozone burden increase generates a positive climate forcing peaking at 0.41 W m −2 . The future evolution of ozone strongly depends on the RCP scenario considered. In RCP4.5 and RCP6.0, the evolution of both stratospheric and tropospheric ozone generate relatively weak radiative forcing changes until 2060-2070 followed by a relative 30 % decrease in radiative forcing by 2100. In contrast, RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 model projections exhibit strongly different ozone radiative forcing trajectories. In the RCP2.6 scenario, both effects (stratospheric ozone, a negative forcing, and tropospheric ozone, a positive forcing) decline towards 1950s values while they both get stronger in the RCP8.5 scenario. Over the twentieth century, the evolution of the total aerosol burden is characterized by a strong increase after World War II until the middle of the 1980s followed by a stabilization during the last decade due to the strong decrease in sulfates in OECD countries since the 1970s. The cooling effects reach their maximal values in 1980, with −0.34 and −0.28 W m −2 respectively for direct and indirect total radiative forcings. According to the RCP scenarios, the aerosol content, after peaking around 2010, is projected to decline strongly and monotonically during the twenty-first century for the RCP8.5, 4.5 and 2.6 scenarios. While for RCP6.0 the decline occurs later, after peaking around 2050. As a consequence the relative importance of the total ... |
| نوع الوثيقة: | article in journal/newspaper |
| اللغة: | English |
| DOI: | 10.1007/s00382-012-1408-y |
| الاتاحة: | https://hal.science/hal-00723730 https://hal.science/hal-00723730v1/document https://hal.science/hal-00723730v1/file/art_10.1007_s00382-012-1408-y.pdf https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1408-y |
| Rights: | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ ; info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
| رقم الانضمام: | edsbas.D56F28C4 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | BASE |
| DOI: | 10.1007/s00382-012-1408-y |
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