Academic Journal
Quantifying probabilities of eruption at a well-monitored active volcano: an application to Mt.Etna (Sicily, Italy)
| العنوان: | Quantifying probabilities of eruption at a well-monitored active volcano: an application to Mt.Etna (Sicily, Italy) |
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| المؤلفون: | Brancato, A., Gresta, S., Sandri, L., Selva, J., Marzocchi, W., Alparone, S., Andronico, D., Bonforte, A., Caltabiano, T., Cocina, O., Corsaro, R. A., Cristofolini, R., Di Grazia, G., Distefano, G., Ferlito, C., Gambino, S., Giammanco, S., Greco, F., Napoli, R., Tusa, G., Viccaro, M. |
| المساهمون: | Brancato, A., Universita di Catania, Gresta, S., Sandri, L., Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia, Selva, J., Marzocchi, W., Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia, Alparone, S., Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Catania, Catania, Italia, Andronico, D., Bonforte, A., Caltabiano, T., Cocina, O., Corsaro, R. A., Cristofolini, R., Di Grazia, G., Distefano, G., Ferlito, C., Gambino, S., Giammanco, S., Greco, F., Napoli, R., Tusa, G., Viccaro, M., Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione OE, Catania, Italia |
| بيانات النشر: | Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale-OGS |
| سنة النشر: | 2012 |
| المجموعة: | Earth-Prints (Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia) |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | Mt. Etna, eruption forecasting, Bayesian event tree, 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk |
| الوصف: | At active volcanoes, distinct eruptions are preceded by complex and different precursory patterns; in addition, there are precursory signals that do not necessarily lead to an eruption. The main purpose of this paper is to present an unprecedented application of the recently developed code named BET_EF (Bayesian Event Tree_Eruption Forecasting) to the quantitative estimate of the eruptive hazard at Mt. Etna volcano. We tested the model for the case history of the July-August 2001 flank eruption. Anomalies in geophysical, geochemical and volcanological monitoring parameters were observed more than a month in advance of the effective onset of the eruption. As a consequence, eruption probabilities larger than 90% were estimated. An important feature of the application of BET_EF to Mt. Etna was the probabilistic estimate of opening vent locations. The methodology allowed a clear identification of assumptions and the monitoring of parameter thresholds and provided rational means for their revision if new data or information are incoming. ; Published ; 55-74 ; JCR Journal ; restricted |
| نوع الوثيقة: | article in journal/newspaper |
| وصف الملف: | application/pdf |
| اللغة: | English |
| تدمد: | 0006-6729 |
| Relation: | Bollettino di Geofisica Teorica ed Applicata; 1/53(2012) |
| DOI: | 10.4430/bgta0040 |
| الاتاحة: | https://www.earth-prints.org/handle/2122/8173 https://doi.org/10.4430/bgta0040 |
| رقم الانضمام: | edsbas.BC69673 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | BASE |
| تدمد: | 00066729 |
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| DOI: | 10.4430/bgta0040 |