Academic Journal
Incorporating the North Atlantic Oscillation into the post‐processing of MOGREPS‐G wind speed forecasts
| العنوان: | Incorporating the North Atlantic Oscillation into the post‐processing of MOGREPS‐G wind speed forecasts |
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| المؤلفون: | Allen, S, Evans, GR, Buchanan, P, Kwasniok, F |
| بيانات النشر: | Wiley / Royal Meteorological Society |
| سنة النشر: | 2021 |
| المجموعة: | University of Exeter: Open Research Exeter (ORE) |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | North Atlantic Oscillation, weather forecasting, weather regimes, wind speed, statistical post-processing |
| الوصف: | This is the final version. Available from Wiley / Royal Meteorological Society via the DOI in this record. ; Changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) heavily influence the weather across the UK and the rest of Europe. Due to an incorrect representation of the polar jet stream and its associated physical processes, it is reasonable to believe that errors in numerical weather prediction models may also depend on the prevailing behaviour of the NAO. To address this, information regarding the NAO is incorporated into statistical post-processing methods through a regime-dependent mixture model, which is then applied to wind speed forecasts from the Met Office's global ensemble prediction system, MOGREPS-G. The mixture model offers substantial improvements upon conventional post-processing methods when the local wind speed depends strongly on the NAO, but the additional complexity of the model can hinder forecast performance otherwise. A measure of regime dependency is thus defined that can be used to differentiate between situations when the numerical model output is, and is not, expected to benefit from regime-dependent post-processing. Implementing the regime-dependent mixture model only when this measure exceeds a certain threshold is found to further improve predictive performance, while also producing more accurate forecasts of extreme wind speeds. ; Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) |
| نوع الوثيقة: | article in journal/newspaper |
| وصف الملف: | 1403-1418 |
| اللغة: | English |
| تدمد: | 0035-9009 1477-870X |
| Relation: | Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 147(735); orcid:0000-0003-1971-8277 (Allen, Sam); orcid:0000-0003-1421-4010 (Kwasniok, Frank); Vol. 147 (735), pp. 1403-1418; https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3983; NE/N008693/1; http://hdl.handle.net/10871/130334; Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |
| DOI: | 10.1002/qj.3983 |
| الاتاحة: | http://hdl.handle.net/10871/130334 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3983 |
| Rights: | © 2021 The Authors. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the Royal Meteorological Society. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. ; http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
| رقم الانضمام: | edsbas.9BB95654 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | BASE |
| تدمد: | 00359009 1477870X |
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| DOI: | 10.1002/qj.3983 |