Academic Journal
A simple model of the anthropogenically forced CO2 cycle
| العنوان: | A simple model of the anthropogenically forced CO2 cycle |
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| المؤلفون: | Weber, W., Lüdecke, H.-J., Weiss, C. O. |
| المصدر: | eISSN: 2190-4987 |
| سنة النشر: | 2018 |
| المجموعة: | Copernicus Publications: E-Journals |
| الوصف: | From basic physical assumptions we derive a simple linear model of the global CO 2 cycle without free parameters. It yields excellent agreement with the observations reported by the carbon dioxide information analysis center (CDIAC) as time series of atmospheric CO 2 growth, of sinks in the ocean and of absorption by the biosphere. The agreement extends from the year 1850 until present (2013). Based on anthropogenic CO 2 emission scenarios until 2150, future atmospheric CO 2 concentrations are calculated. As the model shows, and depending on the emission scenario, the airborne fraction of CO 2 begins to decrease in the year ~ 2050 and becomes negative at the latest in ~ 2130. At the same time the concentration of the atmospheric CO 2 will reach a maximum between ~ 500 and ~ 900 ppm. As a consequence, increasing anthropogenic CO 2 emissions will make the ocean and the biosphere the main reservoirs of anthropogenic CO 2 in the long run. Latest in about 150 years, anthropogenic CO 2 emission will no longer increase the CO 2 content of the atmosphere. |
| نوع الوثيقة: | text |
| وصف الملف: | application/pdf |
| اللغة: | English |
| Relation: | https://esd.copernicus.org/preprints/esd-2015-63/ |
| DOI: | 10.5194/esdd-6-2043-2015 |
| الاتاحة: | https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-6-2043-2015 https://esd.copernicus.org/preprints/esd-2015-63/ |
| رقم الانضمام: | edsbas.663EF08 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | BASE |
| DOI: | 10.5194/esdd-6-2043-2015 |
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