Academic Journal
An Advanced Hidden Markov Model for Hourly Rainfall Time Series
| العنوان: | An Advanced Hidden Markov Model for Hourly Rainfall Time Series |
|---|---|
| المؤلفون: | Stoner, O, Economou, T |
| بيانات النشر: | Elsevier |
| سنة النشر: | 2020 |
| المجموعة: | University of Exeter: Open Research Exeter (ORE) |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | Droughts, Non-homogeneous, Persistence, Simulation, Sub-daily, Extreme values |
| الوصف: | This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available on open access from Elsevier via the DOI in this record ; The hidden Markov framework is adapted to construct a compelling model for simulation of sub-daily rainfall, capable of capturing important characteristics of sub-daily rainfall well, including: long dry periods or droughts; seasonal and temporal variation in occurrence and intensity; and propensity for extreme values. These adaptations include both clone states and temporally non-homogeneous state persistence probabilities. Set in the Bayesian framework, a rich quantification of parametric and predictive uncertainty is available, and thorough model checking is made possible through posterior predictive analyses. Results from the model are highly interpretable, allowing for meaningful examination of diurnal, seasonal and annual variation in sub-daily rainfall occurrence and intensity. To demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach, both in terms of model fit and interpretability, the model is applied to an 8-year long time series of hourly observations. ; Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) |
| نوع الوثيقة: | article in journal/newspaper |
| اللغة: | English |
| تدمد: | 0167-9473 |
| Relation: | Article 107045; NE/L002434/1; http://hdl.handle.net/10871/121915; Computational Statistics and Data Analysis |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.csda.2020.107045 |
| الاتاحة: | http://hdl.handle.net/10871/121915 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csda.2020.107045 |
| Rights: | © 2020. Open access under a Creative Commons license: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ ; https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
| رقم الانضمام: | edsbas.56C3CF43 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | BASE |
| تدمد: | 01679473 |
|---|---|
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.csda.2020.107045 |