Academic Journal
The risks of malaria infection in Kenya in 2009
| العنوان: | The risks of malaria infection in Kenya in 2009 |
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| المؤلفون: | Noor, A, Gething, P, Alegana, V, Patil, A, Hay, S, Muchiri, E, Juma, E, Snow, R |
| بيانات النشر: | BioMed Central |
| سنة النشر: | 2016 |
| المجموعة: | Oxford University Research Archive (ORA) |
| الوصف: | Background: To design an effective strategy for the control of malaria requires a map of infection and disease risks to select appropriate suites of interventions. Advances in model based geo-statistics and malaria parasite prevalence data assemblies provide unique opportunities to redefine national Plasmodium falciparum risk distributions. Here we present a new map of malaria risk for Kenya in 2009. Methods: Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate data were assembled from cross-sectional community based surveys undertaken from 1975 to 2009. Details recorded for each survey included the month and year of the survey, sample size, positivity and the age ranges of sampled population. Data were corrected to a standard age-range of two to less than 10 years (PfPR2-10) and each survey location was geo-positioned using national and on-line digital settlement maps. Ecological and climate covariates were matched to each PfPR2-10 survey location and examined separately and in combination for relationships to PfPR2-10. Significant covariates were then included in a Bayesian geostatistical spatial-temporal framework to predict continuous and categorical maps of mean PfPR2-10 at a 1 × 1 km resolution across Kenya for the year 2009. Model hold-out data were used to test the predictive accuracy of the mapped surfaces and distributions of the posterior uncertainty were mapped. Results: A total of 2,682 estimates of PfPR2-10 from surveys undertaken at 2,095 sites between 1975 and 2009 were selected for inclusion in the geo-statistical modeling. The covariates selected for prediction were urbanization; maximum temperature; precipitation; enhanced vegetation index; and distance to main water bodies. The final Bayesian geo-statistical model had a high predictive accuracy with mean error of -0.15% PfPR2-10; mean absolute error of 0.38% PfPR2-10; and linear correlation between observed and predicted PfPR2-10 of 0.81. The majority of Kenya's 2009 population (35.2 million, 86.3%) reside in areas where predicted PfPR2-10 is less than 5%; ... |
| نوع الوثيقة: | article in journal/newspaper |
| اللغة: | English |
| Relation: | https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:e687c66b-5597-4e37-ab0b-6b3fc6d62492; https://doi.org/10.1186/1471-2334-9-180 |
| DOI: | 10.1186/1471-2334-9-180 |
| الاتاحة: | https://doi.org/10.1186/1471-2334-9-180 https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:e687c66b-5597-4e37-ab0b-6b3fc6d62492 |
| Rights: | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess ; CC Attribution (CC BY) |
| رقم الانضمام: | edsbas.563BD403 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | BASE |
| DOI: | 10.1186/1471-2334-9-180 |
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