Academic Journal
Global impacts of oil price shocks: the trade effect
| العنوان: | Global impacts of oil price shocks: the trade effect |
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| المؤلفون: | Moshiri, Saeed, Kheirandish, Elham |
| المصدر: | Journal of Economic Studies ; volume 51, issue 1, page 126-144 ; ISSN 0144-3585 |
| بيانات النشر: | Emerald |
| سنة النشر: | 2023 |
| الوصف: | Purpose Oil price shocks greatly impact the global economy, but the effects vary among countries. While higher oil prices benefit oil-exporting countries, they harm the economic performance of oil-importing nations, and vice versa for lower oil prices. However, economic relations, such as trade, can mitigate the impacts of oil price shocks on both groups. In this paper, the authors aim at estimating the effects of oil price shocks on the major net oil-exporting and net oil-importing countries while accounting for international trade. Design/methodology/approach The authors derive a reduced form of a macro model and set up a Panel VAR model to estimate the direct and indirect impacts of oil price shocks on economic growth. The sample includes data on macroeconomic variables from 30 oil-exporting and oil-importing countries that comprise more than 73 percent of the world's economy. The authors construct the spillover variables using bilateral trade matrix. To control for institutional and structural variations across the countries, they are divided into four groups of developed and developing oil-exporting and oil-importing countries. Findings The results reveal that all oil-exporting countries have significantly benefited from oil price shocks, although trade has dampened the effect. The positive growth effect has been more pronounced in oil-exporting developing countries. The impact of oil price shocks on oil-importing countries has been negative with a one-year delay, but not statistically significant, and trade has only had a small effect. The effect has been more substantial in oil-importing developing countries. Research limitations/implications One of the limitations of this study is the focus on trade as the main spillover channel. Given the data availability, other channels such as foreign investment and financial markets can also be included in future studies. Practical implications Removing trade restrictions would help both oil-exporting and oil-importing countries to mitigate the negative impacts of ... |
| نوع الوثيقة: | article in journal/newspaper |
| اللغة: | English |
| DOI: | 10.1108/jes-08-2022-0455 |
| DOI: | 10.1108/JES-08-2022-0455/full/xml |
| DOI: | 10.1108/JES-08-2022-0455/full/html |
| الاتاحة: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jes-08-2022-0455 https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-08-2022-0455/full/xml https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-08-2022-0455/full/html |
| Rights: | https://www.emerald.com/insight/site-policies |
| رقم الانضمام: | edsbas.557FE516 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | BASE |
| DOI: | 10.1108/jes-08-2022-0455 |
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