Academic Journal
Development and Validation of a Nonremission Risk Prediction Model in First-Episode Psychosis: An Analysis of 2 Longitudinal Studies
| العنوان: | Development and Validation of a Nonremission Risk Prediction Model in First-Episode Psychosis: An Analysis of 2 Longitudinal Studies |
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| المؤلفون: | Leighton, Samuel P, Krishnadas, Rajeev, Upthegrove, Rachel, Marwaha, Steven, Steyerberg, Ewout W, Gkoutos, Georgios V, Broome, Matthew R, Liddle, Peter F, Everard, Linda, Singh, Swaran P, Freemantle, Nicholas, Fowler, David, Jones, Peter B, Sharma, Vimal, Murray, Robin, Wykes, Til, Drake, Richard J, Buchan, Iain, Rogers, Simon, Cavanagh, Jonathan, Lewis, Shon W, Birchwood, Max, Mallikarjun, Pavan K |
| المصدر: | eissn: 2632-7899 |
| بيانات النشر: | Oxford University Press (OUP) |
| سنة النشر: | 2023 |
| المجموعة: | University of Chester: Chester Digital Repository |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | Psychiatry and Mental health |
| الوصف: | From Crossref journal articles via Jisc Publications Router ; History: ppub 2021-01-01, issued 2021-01-01, epub 2021-08-31 ; Article version: VoR ; Publication status: Published ; Funder: UK Department of Health; FundRef: 10.13039/501100000276; Grant(s): RDD/ARF2 ; Funder: National Institutes of Health; FundRef: 10.13039/100000002 ; Funder: Programme Grants for Applied Research Programme; Grant(s): RP-PG-0109-10074 ; Funder: UK Medical Research Council; FundRef: 10.13039/501100000265; Grant(s): G0300610 ; Funder: Clinical Academic Fellowship ; Funder: Wellcome Trust; FundRef: 10.13039/100010269 ; Funder: National Institute for Health Research; FundRef: 10.13039/501100000272 ; Psychosis is a major mental illness with first onset in young adults. The prognosis is poor in around half of the people affected, and difficult to predict. The few tools available to predict prognosis have major weaknesses which limit their use in clinical practice. We aimed to develop and validate a risk prediction model of symptom nonremission in first-episode psychosis. Our development cohort consisted of 1027 patients with first-episode psychosis recruited between 2005 and 2010 from 14 early intervention services across the National Health Service in England. Our validation cohort consisted of 399 patients with first-episode psychosis recruited between 2006 and 2009 from a further 11 English early intervention services. The one-year nonremission rate was 52% and 54% in the development and validation cohorts, respectively. Multivariable logistic regression was used to develop a risk prediction model for nonremission, which was externally validated. The prediction model showed good discrimination C-statistic of 0.73 (0.64, 0.81) and adequate calibration with intercept alpha of –0.014 (–0.34, 0.31) and slope beta of 0.85 (0.42, 1.27). Our model improved the net-benefit by 16% at a risk threshold of 50% compared to the strategy of treating all, equivalent to 16 more detected nonremitted first-episode psychosis individuals per 100 without ... |
| نوع الوثيقة: | article in journal/newspaper |
| اللغة: | unknown |
| Relation: | Schizophrenia Bulletin Open, volume 2, issue 1; http://hdl.handle.net/10034/627725 |
| DOI: | 10.1093/schizbullopen/sgab041 |
| الاتاحة: | http://hdl.handle.net/10034/627725 https://doi.org/10.1093/schizbullopen/sgab041 |
| Rights: | Licence for VoR version of this article starting on 2021-08-31: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
| رقم الانضمام: | edsbas.4E74B91 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | BASE |
| DOI: | 10.1093/schizbullopen/sgab041 |
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