Academic Journal
Statistical models for decision-making in professional soccer
| العنوان: | Statistical models for decision-making in professional soccer |
|---|---|
| المؤلفون: | Hellingman, Sean |
| المصدر: | Theses and Dissertations (Comprehensive) |
| بيانات النشر: | Scholars Commons @ Laurier |
| سنة النشر: | 2023 |
| المجموعة: | Wilfrid Laurier University, Ontario: Scholars Commons@Laurier |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | Sports analytics, Markov Chains, Simulation, Dynamic programming, Game theory, Generalized linear models, Applied Statistics, Statistical Models |
| الوصف: | As soccer is widely regarded as the most popular sport in the world there is high interest in methods of improving team performances. There are many ways teams and individual athletes can influence their own performances during competition. This thesis focuses on developing statistical methodologies for improving competition-based decision-making for soccer so as to allow professional soccer teams to make better informed decisions regarding player selection and in-game decision-making. To properly capture the dynamic actions of professional soccer, Markov chains with increasing complexity are proposed. These models allow for the inclusion of potential changes in the process caused by goals and substitutions, thus leading to a more complete and informative picture. Computer tracking data containing event descriptions and locations from La Liga games involving Futbol Club Barcelona have been used for model implementation and validation. Validations conducted through simulations show that the more complex models fit the data well. The most complex models including goal differential and substitutions are used to develop conditional substitution strategies. This is done through simulations and applications of general game theory. Drafting is a common way for many North American professional sports teams to obtain new players. With no exception, the Major League Soccer (MLS) SuperDraft takes place prior to the start of each season to select potential new players. Being able to make well informed decisions surrounding draft selections is an important aspect of managing a team. The second major portion of the thesis seeks to identify desirable characteristics of players drafted by MLS teams. Modelling the probability of playing at least 30 MLS games, mixed effects logistic regression models are used to identify desirable characteristics and attempt to predict the outcomes of future drafted players. Results show significant player characteristics as well as multiple significant sources of variability. Furthermore, ... |
| نوع الوثيقة: | text |
| وصف الملف: | application/pdf |
| اللغة: | English |
| Relation: | https://scholars.wlu.ca/etd/2528; https://scholars.wlu.ca/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3676&context=etd |
| الاتاحة: | https://scholars.wlu.ca/etd/2528 https://scholars.wlu.ca/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3676&context=etd |
| رقم الانضمام: | edsbas.303A7333 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | BASE |
| الوصف غير متاح. |