Academic Journal
A critical discussion and practical recommendations on some issues relevant to the non-probabilistic treatment of uncertainty in engineering risk assessment
| العنوان: | A critical discussion and practical recommendations on some issues relevant to the non-probabilistic treatment of uncertainty in engineering risk assessment |
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| المؤلفون: | Pedroni, Nicola, Zio, Enrico, Pasanisi, Alberto, Couplet, Mathieu |
| المساهمون: | Laboratoire Génie Industriel - EA 2606 (LGI), CentraleSupélec, Chaire Sciences des Systèmes et Défis Energétiques EDF/ECP/Supélec (SSEC), Ecole Centrale Paris-Ecole Supérieure d'Electricité - SUPELEC (FRANCE)-CentraleSupélec-EDF R&D (EDF R&D), EDF (EDF)-EDF (EDF), European Institute For Energy Research (EIFER), Universität Karlsruhe (TH)-EDF R&D (EDF R&D), Simulation et Traitement de l'information pour l'Exploitation des systèmes de Production (EDF R&D STEP), EDF R&D (EDF R&D) |
| المصدر: | ISSN: 0272-4332. |
| بيانات النشر: | HAL CCSD Wiley |
| سنة النشر: | 2017 |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | uncertainty representation and propagation, Bayesian update, dependences, [QFIN]Quantitative Finance [q-fin], [QFIN.RM]Quantitative Finance [q-fin]/Risk Management [q-fin.RM] |
| الوصف: | International audience ; Models for the assessment of the risk of complex engineering systems are affected by uncertainties, due to the randomness of several phenomena involved and the incomplete knowledge about some of the characteristics of the system. The objective of the present paper is to provide operative guidelines to handle some conceptual and technical issues related to the treatment of uncertainty in risk assessment for engineering practice. In particular, the following issues are addressed: (1) quantitative modeling and representation of uncertainty coherently with the information available on the system of interest; (2) propagation of the uncertainty from the input(s) to the output(s) of the system model; (3) (Bayesian) updating as new information on the system becomes available; (4) modeling and representation of dependences among the input variables and parameters of the system model. Different approaches and methods are recommended for efficiently tackling each of the issues (1)‒(4) above; the tools considered are derived from both classical probability theory as well as alternative, non-fully probabilistic uncertainty representation frameworks (e.g., possibility theory). The recommendations drawn are supported by the results obtained in illustrative applications of literature. |
| نوع الوثيقة: | article in journal/newspaper |
| اللغة: | English |
| Relation: | hal-01652230; https://hal.science/hal-01652230; https://hal.science/hal-01652230/document; https://hal.science/hal-01652230/file/192_A-Critical-Discussion-and-Practical-Recommendations-on-Some-Issues-Relevant-to-the-Nonprobabilistic-Treatment-of-Uncertainty-in-Engineering-Risk-Assessment.pdf |
| DOI: | 10.1111/risa.12705 |
| الاتاحة: | https://hal.science/hal-01652230 https://hal.science/hal-01652230/document https://hal.science/hal-01652230/file/192_A-Critical-Discussion-and-Practical-Recommendations-on-Some-Issues-Relevant-to-the-Nonprobabilistic-Treatment-of-Uncertainty-in-Engineering-Risk-Assessment.pdf https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12705 |
| Rights: | info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
| رقم الانضمام: | edsbas.236475A9 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | BASE |
| DOI: | 10.1111/risa.12705 |
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