Report
Forecasting elections using compartmental models of infection
| العنوان: | Forecasting elections using compartmental models of infection |
|---|---|
| المؤلفون: | Volkening, Alexandria, Linder, Daniel F., Porter, Mason A., Rempala, Grzegorz A. |
| سنة النشر: | 2018 |
| المجموعة: | Computer Science Mathematics Nonlinear Sciences Physics (Other) Quantitative Biology |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | Physics - Physics and Society, Computer Science - Social and Information Networks, Mathematics - Dynamical Systems, Nonlinear Sciences - Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems, Quantitative Biology - Populations and Evolution |
| الوصف: | Forecasting elections -- a challenging, high-stakes problem -- is the subject of much uncertainty, subjectivity, and media scrutiny. To shed light on this process, we develop a method for forecasting elections from the perspective of dynamical systems. Our model borrows ideas from epidemiology, and we use polling data from United States elections to determine its parameters. Surprisingly, our general model performs as well as popular forecasters for the 2012 and 2016 U.S. races for president, senators, and governors. Although contagion and voting dynamics differ, our work suggests a valuable approach to elucidate how elections are related across states. It also illustrates the effect of accounting for uncertainty in different ways, provides an example of data-driven forecasting using dynamical systems, and suggests avenues for future research on political elections. We conclude with our forecasts for the senatorial and gubernatorial races on 6~November 2018, which we posted on 5 November 2018. Comment: SIAM Review, in press. For forecasts of the 2020 U.S. elections that use the methodology from this paper, go to \url{https://modelingelectiondynamics.gitlab.io/2020-forecasts/index.html}. The website is by Samuel Chian, William L. He, and Christopher M. Lee, who are students working on a project that is supervised by Alexandria Volkening |
| نوع الوثيقة: | Working Paper |
| URL الوصول: | http://arxiv.org/abs/1811.01831 |
| رقم الانضمام: | edsarx.1811.01831 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | arXiv |
| الوصف غير متاح. |