Modelling of COVID-19 Morbidity in Russia

التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
العنوان: Modelling of COVID-19 Morbidity in Russia
المؤلفون: Georgy, Kopanitsa, Oleg, Metsker, Alexey, Yakovlev, Alexey, Fedorenko, Nadezhda, Zvartau
المصدر: Studies in health technology and informatics. 273
سنة النشر: 2020
مصطلحات موضوعية: Betacoronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, Pneumonia, Viral, COVID-19, Humans, Morbidity, Coronavirus Infections, Pandemics, Russia
الوصف: The outbreak of COVID-19 has led to a crucial change in ordinary healthcare approaches. In comparison with emergencies re-allocation of resources for a long period of time is required and the peak utilization of the resources is also hard to predict. Furthermore, the epidemic models do not provide reliable information of the development of the pandemic's development, so it creates a high load on the healthcare systems with unforeseen duration. To predict morbidity of the novel COVID-19, we used records covering the time period from 01-03-2020 to 25-05-2020 and include sophisticated information of the morbidity in Russia. Total of 45238 patients were analyzed. The predictive model was developed as a combination of Holt and Holt-Winter models with Gradient boosting Regression. As we can see from the table 2, the models demonstrated a very good performance on the test data set. The forecast is quite reliable, however, due to the many uncertainties, only a real-world data can prove the correctness of the forecast.
تدمد: 1879-8365
URL الوصول: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=pmid________::0d3eec2e7e0ed567db17aaffb5f66c75
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33087624
رقم الانضمام: edsair.pmid..........0d3eec2e7e0ed567db17aaffb5f66c75
قاعدة البيانات: OpenAIRE