OBJECTIVES South African HIV care providers are exploring ways to reduce the intensity of patient visits while maintaining high quality of care. We used routinely collected data to model whether a simple screening tool could identify stable patients who would not need to see a doctor during a scheduled medical visit. DESIGN We identified stable and nonstable visits from January 2007 to September 2011 at a large HIV clinic in Johannesburg, SA. Stable medical visits were defined as having all of the following: stable CD4 count, undetectable viral load, stable weight, not pregnant, no comorbidity, no regimen change within three months, and normal laboratory results for hemoglobin, alanine aminotransferase, and creatinine clearance. METHODS We assessed the sensitivity and specificity of nonstable visits at predicting indicators of disease progression or needing additional care: (1) ART regimen change and (2) follow-up visits in