Forecasting climate-driven changes in the geographical range of the European anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus)
| العنوان: | Forecasting climate-driven changes in the geographical range of the European anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) |
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| المؤلفون: | Rachid Amara, Mahmoud Bacha, Grégory Beaugrand, Virginie Raybaud |
| المساهمون: | Ecosystèmes Côtiers Marins et Réponses aux Stress (ECOMERS), Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (... - 2019) (UNS), COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) (COMUE UCA)-COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) (COMUE UCA)-Université Côte d'Azur (UCA), Observatoire océanologique de Villefranche-sur-mer (OOVM), Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratoire d’Océanologie et de Géosciences (LOG) - UMR 8187 (LOG), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale (ULCO)-Université de Lille-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS), Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) (UNS), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale (ULCO)-Université de Lille-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Nord]) |
| المصدر: | ICES Journal of Marine Science ICES Journal of Marine Science, Oxford University Press (OUP), 2017, 74 (5), pp.1288-1299. ⟨10.1093/icesjms/fsx003⟩ ICES Journal of Marine Science, 2017, 74 (5), pp.1288-1299. ⟨10.1093/icesjms/fsx003⟩ |
| بيانات النشر: | HAL CCSD, 2017. |
| سنة النشر: | 2017 |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | 0106 biological sciences, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Ecology, biology, Engraulis encrasicolus, Range (biology), 010604 marine biology & hydrobiology, Aquatic Science, range shift, Oceanography, biology.organism_classification, 01 natural sciences, Fishery, Engraulis, Geography, European anchovy, 13. Climate action, climate change impact, NPPEN model, 14. Life underwater, ecological niche model, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, [SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences |
| الوصف: | International audience; Anthropogenic climate change is already affecting marine ecosystems and the responses of living-resources to warming waters are various, ranging from the modifications in the abundance of key species to phenologic and biogeographic shifts. Here, we used a recently developed Ecological Niche Model (ENM) to evaluate the potential effects of global climate change on the future geographical distribution of the European anchovy. We first modelled the ecological niche (sensu Hutchinson) of the fish and projected its future spatial range using new IPCC representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios and five of the latest generation of ocean-atmosphere global circulation models. We chose this multi-model and multi-scenario approach to evaluate the range of possible trajectories until the end of the century. Our projections indicate that substantial poleward shifts in the probability of anchovy occurrence are very likely and highlight areas where European anchovy fisheries are forecasted to change most. Whatever the warming scenario, our results project a reduction in the probability of occurrence in all the regions located under 48°N and an increase in more northern areas. However, increases or decreases in the probability of occurrence are greater under the “business-as-usual” scenario RCP8.5 than under the low-emission scenario RCP2.6. |
| اللغة: | English |
| تدمد: | 1054-3139 1095-9289 |
| DOI: | 10.1093/icesjms/fsx003⟩ |
| URL الوصول: | https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::cdb411438799766ae0cac869ba097f88 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01572071 |
| Rights: | OPEN |
| رقم الانضمام: | edsair.doi.dedup.....cdb411438799766ae0cac869ba097f88 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | OpenAIRE |
| تدمد: | 10543139 10959289 |
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| DOI: | 10.1093/icesjms/fsx003⟩ |