Using Mortality Risk Scores for Long-term Prognosis of Nursing Home Residents: Caution Is Recommended
| العنوان: | Using Mortality Risk Scores for Long-term Prognosis of Nursing Home Residents: Caution Is Recommended |
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| المؤلفون: | Gregory F. Petroski, Steven Zweig, Debra Parker Oliver, Denise L. Swenson, Robin L. Kruse, David R. Mehr |
| المصدر: | The Journals of Gerontology Series A: Biological Sciences and Medical Sciences. :1235-1241 |
| بيانات النشر: | Oxford University Press (OUP), 2010. |
| سنة النشر: | 2010 |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | Male, Aging, medicine.medical_specialty, Time Factors, Independent predictor, Risk Assessment, medicine, Humans, Prospective Studies, Mortality, Intensive care medicine, Prospective cohort study, Geriatric Assessment, Statistic, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Minimum Data Set, Framingham Risk Score, business.industry, Prognosis, Nursing Homes, Term (time), Logistic Models, Female, Geriatrics and Gerontology, Risk assessment, Nursing homes, business, Demography |
| الوصف: | Determining prognosis for nursing home residents is important for care planning, but reliable prediction is difficult. We compared performance of four long-term mortality risk indices for nursing home residents-the Minimum Data Set Mortality Risk Index (MMRI), a recent revision to this index (MMRI-R), and the original and revised Flacker-Kiely models.We conducted a prospective cohort study in one 92-bed facility in Missouri. Participants were 130 residents who received a Minimum Data Set assessment from May through October, 2007. We collected the Minimum Data Set variables needed to calculate the mortality risk scores. We determined 6- and 12-month mortality for included residents. Using each mortality risk score as the sole independent predictor in logistic models predicting mortality, we determined discrimination (c-statistic) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistic) for each model.In our sample, discrimination was 0.59 for both the MMRI and the MMRI-R. Discrimination of the original Flacker-Kiely model was 0.69 for both 6 months and 1 year and 0.71 and 0.70, respectively, for the revised model. Model calibration was adequate for all models.Performance of four models that predict long-term mortality of nursing home residents was fair. In our population, the Flacker-Kiely models had similar and markedly better discrimination than either the MMRI or the MMRI-R. |
| تدمد: | 1758-535X 1079-5006 |
| DOI: | 10.1093/gerona/glq120 |
| URL الوصول: | https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::cc3a3c44b2eeffc642971109727cccf4 https://doi.org/10.1093/gerona/glq120 |
| Rights: | OPEN |
| رقم الانضمام: | edsair.doi.dedup.....cc3a3c44b2eeffc642971109727cccf4 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | OpenAIRE |
| تدمد: | 1758535X 10795006 |
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| DOI: | 10.1093/gerona/glq120 |