Deja Vol: Predictive Regressions for Aggregate Stock Market Volatility Using Macroeconomic Variables

التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
العنوان: Deja Vol: Predictive Regressions for Aggregate Stock Market Volatility Using Macroeconomic Variables
المؤلفون: Bradley S. Paye
المصدر: SSRN Electronic Journal.
بيانات النشر: Elsevier BV, 2011.
سنة النشر: 2011
مصطلحات موضوعية: Economics and Econometrics, Realized variance, Strategy and Management, media_common.quotation_subject, Aggregate (data warehouse), education, Univariate, Implied volatility, Recession, Volatility risk premium, Granger causality, Accounting, Volatility swap, Predictive power, Forward volatility, Economics, Econometrics, Volatility smile, Volatility (finance), Finance, Stock (geology), health care economics and organizations, media_common
الوصف: Aggregate stock return volatility is both persistent and countercyclical. This paper tests whether it is possible to improve volatility forecasts at monthly and quarterly horizons by conditioning on additional macroeconomic variables. I find that several variables related to macroeconomic uncertainty, time-varying expected stock returns, and credit conditions Granger cause volatility. It is more difficult to find evidence that forecasts exploiting macroeconomic variables outperform a univariate benchmark out-of-sample. The most successful approaches involve simple combinations of individual forecasts. Predictive power associated with macroeconomic variables appears to concentrate around the onset of recessions.
تدمد: 1556-5068
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.783986
URL الوصول: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::af46c04c6cf9ab926175693d6ee5f73a
https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.783986
Rights: OPEN
رقم الانضمام: edsair.doi.dedup.....af46c04c6cf9ab926175693d6ee5f73a
قاعدة البيانات: OpenAIRE
الوصف
تدمد:15565068
DOI:10.2139/ssrn.783986