Fiscal Foresight and Information Flows

التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
العنوان: Fiscal Foresight and Information Flows
المؤلفون: Eric M. Leeper, Susan S. Yang, Todd B. Walker
المصدر: SSRN Electronic Journal.
بيانات النشر: Elsevier BV, 2012.
سنة النشر: 2012
مصطلحات موضوعية: Economics and Econometrics, Theoretical models, Tax rate, Vector autoregression, Moving average, Income tax, 0502 economics and business, Econometrics, Economics, jel:E3, jel:E6, 050207 economics, Tax law, 050205 econometrics, General Environmental Science, Simple (philosophy), Government spending, Western hemisphere, General, Econometric Modeling, [Fiscal policy, news, anticipated taxes, non-fundamental representation, identified VARs, tax rates, tax changes, bonds, bond, Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents], Rational expectations, 050208 finance, 05 social sciences, Economic agents, Econometric model, Futures studies, General Earth and Planetary Sciences
الوصف: Fiscal foresight -- the phenomenon that legislative and implementation lags ensure that private agents receive clear signals about the tax rates they face in the future -- is intrinsic to the tax policy process. This paper develops an analytical framework to study the econometric implications of fiscal foresight. Simple theoretical examples show that foresight produces equilibrium time series with nonfundamental representations, which misalign the agents' and the econometrician's information sets. Economically meaningful shocks to taxes, therefore, cannot generally be extracted from statistical innovations in conventional ways. Econometric analyses that fail to align agents' and the econometrician's information sets can produce distorted inferences about the effects of tax policies. The paper documents the sensitivity of econometric inferences of tax effects to details about how tax information flows into the economy. We show that alternative assumptions about the information flows that give rise to fiscal foresight can reconcile the diverse empirical findings in the literature on anticipated tax changes.
تدمد: 1556-5068
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2127044
URL الوصول: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::7045d6e8b56a942b38f1608273800a3f
https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2127044
Rights: OPEN
رقم الانضمام: edsair.doi.dedup.....7045d6e8b56a942b38f1608273800a3f
قاعدة البيانات: OpenAIRE
الوصف
تدمد:15565068
DOI:10.2139/ssrn.2127044