Assessing reporting delays and the effective reproduction number: The Ebola epidemic in DRC, May 2018–January 2019

التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
العنوان: Assessing reporting delays and the effective reproduction number: The Ebola epidemic in DRC, May 2018–January 2019
المؤلفون: Kenji Mizumoto, Gerardo Chowell, Amna Tariq, Kimberlyn Roosa
المصدر: Epidemics, Vol 26, Iss, Pp 128-133 (2019)
بيانات النشر: Elsevier, 2019.
سنة النشر: 2019
مصطلحات موضوعية: medicine.medical_specialty, Epidemiology, 030231 tropical medicine, Crude incidence, Microbiology, World health, Time, lcsh:Infectious and parasitic diseases, 03 medical and health sciences, 0302 clinical medicine, Virology, Health care, medicine, Humans, lcsh:RC109-216, 030212 general & internal medicine, Epidemics, business.industry, Incidence (epidemiology), Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, Outbreak, Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola, Ebolavirus, Infectious Diseases, Geography, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Epidemiological surveillance, Female, Parasitology, business, Demography
الوصف: On August 1, 2018, the Democratic Republic of Congo declared its 10th and largest outbreak of Ebola inflicting North Khivu and Ituri provinces. The spread of Ebola to Congolese urban centers along with deliberate attacks on the health care workers has hindered epidemiological surveillance activities, leading to substantial reporting delays. Reporting delays distort the epidemic incidence pattern misrepresenting estimates of epidemic potential and the outbreak trajectory. To assess the impact of reporting delays, we conducted a real-time analysis of the dynamics of the ongoing Ebola outbreak in the DRC using epidemiological data retrieved from the World Health Organization Situation Reports and Disease Outbreak News. We analyzed temporal trends in reporting delays, epidemic curves of crude and reporting-delay adjusted incidences and changes in the effective reproduction number, Rt. As of January 15, 2019, 663 Ebola cases have been reported in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The average reporting delay exhibited 81.1% decline from a mean of 17.4 weeks (95% CI 13–24.1) in May, 2018 to 3.3 weeks (95% CI 2.7–4.2) in September, 2018 (F-test statistic = 44.9, p = 0.0067). The Ebola epidemic has shown a two-wave pattern with the first surge in cases occurring between July 30 and August 13, 2018 and the second on September 24, 2018. During the last 4 generation intervals, the trend in the mean Rt has exhibited a slight decline (rho = −0.37, p
اللغة: English
تدمد: 1755-4365
URL الوصول: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::5ed2df3f90752abc65457188d923a426
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S175543651830166X
Rights: OPEN
رقم الانضمام: edsair.doi.dedup.....5ed2df3f90752abc65457188d923a426
قاعدة البيانات: OpenAIRE