Surprise! Euro Area Inflation Has Fallen

التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
العنوان: Surprise! Euro Area Inflation Has Fallen
المؤلفون: Marianna Riggi, Fabrizio Venditti
المصدر: SSRN Electronic Journal.
بيانات النشر: Elsevier BV, 2014.
سنة النشر: 2014
مصطلحات موضوعية: Inflation, jel:C53, media_common.quotation_subject, Keynesian economics, Structural break, Context (language use), jel:E31, jel:E37, Recession, inflation, Phillips curve, structural break, strategic complementarities, Surprise, Output gap, Economics, Real interest rate, Phillips curve, media_common
الوصف: Between 2013 and 2014, following the recession triggered by the sovereign debt crisis, euro-area inflation decreased sharply. Although a fall in the inflation rate was to be expected, given the severity of the recession, professional forecasters failed to anticipate it. A possible explanation for this forecast failure lies in a break in the cyclicality of inflation, which was unaccounted for in forecasting models. We probe this explanation in the context of a simple backward-looking Phillips curve and find that the sensitivity of inflation to the output gap has recently increased. We rationalize this result through a structural model, in which a steepening of the Phillips curve arises either from lower nominal rigidities (a decrease in the average duration of prices) or from fewer strategic complementarities in price-setting due to a reduction in the number of firms in the economy.
تدمد: 1556-5068
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2575673
URL الوصول: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::275de401ac7ff031bbc44f4d7647c684
https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2575673
Rights: OPEN
رقم الانضمام: edsair.doi.dedup.....275de401ac7ff031bbc44f4d7647c684
قاعدة البيانات: OpenAIRE
الوصف
تدمد:15565068
DOI:10.2139/ssrn.2575673