Background Celiac disease (CD) is an autoimmune disorder caused by an inappropriate immunological response to gluten ingestion in genetically susceptible individuals. IgA anti-tissue transglutaminase (tTG) antibodies have been widely employed as a specific biochemical marker for CD. Recent studies have also shown its usefulness in evaluating patient compliance with a gluten-free diet. Methods A group of 28 subjects with CD was selected for the study. Each fulfilled the requirement of a gluten-free diet for more than one year. IgA anti-tTG determination was performed every two months for half a year. These data were used to estimate the biological variation (BV) of IgA anti-tTG in celiac patients and to calculate the reference change value (RCV). Results The within-subject biological variation (CVI) and between-subject biological variation (CVG) were 19.2% and 75.6%, respectively, and the index of individuality was 0.25. The RCV calculated using these data together with our analytical imprecision (5.7%) was 55.5% for a 95% level of significance. Conclusions We have determined for the first time the BV and the RCV for IgA anti-tTG in a celiac population. This value and the probability curve generated from our data could be a valuable tool for monitoring patients' adherence to dietary treatment.