Unknown eruption source parameters cause large uncertainty in historical volcanic radiative forcing reconstructions
| العنوان: | Unknown eruption source parameters cause large uncertainty in historical volcanic radiative forcing reconstructions |
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| المؤلفون: | Lindsay Lee, Richard Rigby, Kenneth S. Carslaw, Anja Schmidt, Graham Mann, Lauren Marshall, Jill S. Johnson |
| المساهمون: | Marshall, LR [0000-0003-1471-9481], Schmidt, A [0000-0001-8759-2843], Mann, GW [0000-0003-1746-2837], Lee, LA [0000-0002-8029-6328], Rigby, R [0000-0001-9554-6054], Carslaw, KS [0000-0002-6800-154X], Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository, Marshall, Lauren R. [0000-0003-1471-9481], Schmidt, Anja [0000-0001-8759-2843], Mann, Graham W. [0000-0003-1746-2837], Lee, Lindsay A. [0000-0002-8029-6328], Rigby, Richard [0000-0001-9554-6054], Carslaw, Ken S. [0000-0002-6800-154X] |
| بيانات النشر: | American Geophysical Union (AGU), 2021. |
| سنة النشر: | 2021 |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Radio oceanography, Forcing (mathematics), 01 natural sciences, statistical emulation, ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES, Climate change and variability, Oceans, Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous), Sea level change, OCEANOGRAPHY: PHYSICAL, geography.geographical_feature_category, General circulation, Regional modeling, Atmospheric effects, sulfate deposition, Hydrological cycles and budgets, Gravity and isostasy, volcanic eruptions, Geophysics, RADIO SCIENCE, volcanic radiative forcing, Land/atmosphere interactions, Global change from geodesy, Atmospheric, Climate impact, Mud volcanism, Volcano monitoring, MARINE GEOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS, CRYOSPHERE, Earthquake ground motions and engineering seismology, Effusive volcanism, HYDROLOGY, Sulfate aerosol, Sea level: variations and mean, Sulfate, Climate variability, Solid Earth, Tsunamis and storm surges, VOLCANOLOGY, Explosive eruption, COMPUTATIONAL GEOPHYSICS, Geological, Ocean/Earth/atmosphere/hydrosphere/cryosphere interactions, Volcano seismology, SEISMOLOGY, Modeling, Benefit‐cost analysis, Radiative forcing, Avalanches, NATURAL HAZARDS, Abrupt/rapid climate change, chemistry, Space and Planetary Science, Volcanic effects, volcanic aerosol, Atmospheric Science, Ocean monitoring with geodetic techniques, Mass balance, Atmospheric sciences, Climate dynamics, Air/sea interactions, Regional climate change, chemistry.chemical_compound, Ice core, INFORMATICS, Numerical modeling, Radiative transfer, Surface waves and tides, Earth system modeling, PALEOCEANOGRAPHY, Explosive volcanism, GEODESY AND GRAVITY, Climatology, Physical modeling, Decadal ocean variability, POLICY SCIENCES, Ocean/atmosphere interactions, Volcano/climate interactions, Climate and interannual variability, Impacts of global change, OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL, Disaster risk analysis and assessment, Research Article, Climate impacts, Risk, Air/sea constituent fluxes, Oceanic, Numerical solutions, Volcanic hazards and risks, GLOBAL CHANGE, ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION AND STRUCTURE, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, geography, BIOGEOSCIENCES, Water cycles, Volcano, Ocean influence of Earth rotation, Environmental science, Theoretical modeling |
| الوصف: | Funder: U.K. China Research and Innovation Partnership Fund Funder: National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS); Id: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000662 Reconstructions of volcanic aerosol radiative forcing are required to understand past climate variability. Currently, reconstructions of pre‐20th century volcanic forcing are derived from sulfate concentrations measured in polar ice cores, mainly using a relationship between the average ice‐sheet sulfate deposition and stratospheric sulfate aerosol burden based on a single explosive eruption—the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo. Here we estimate volcanic radiative forcings and associated uncertainty ranges from ice‐core sulfate records of eight of the largest bipolar deposition signals in the last 2,500 years using statistical emulation of a perturbed parameter ensemble of aerosol‐climate model simulations of explosive eruptions. Extensive sampling of different combinations of eruption source parameters using the emulators reveals that a very wide range of eruptions in different seasons with different sulfur dioxide emissions, eruption latitudes, and emission altitudes produce ice‐sheet sulfate deposition consistent with ice‐core records. Consequently, we find a large range in the volcanic forcing that can be directly attributed to the unknown eruption source parameters. We estimate that the uncertainty in volcanic forcing caused by many plausible eruption realizations leads to uncertainties in the global mean surface cooling of around 1°C for the largest unidentified historical eruptions. Our emulators are available online (https://cemac.github.io/volcanic-forcing-deposition) where eruption realizations for given ice‐sheet sulfate depositions can be explored. |
| وصف الملف: | application/pdf; text/xml |
| اللغة: | English |
| تدمد: | 2169-897X 2169-8996 |
| URL الوصول: | https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::0fb4092dc2dbbb3fec19567373d62456 |
| Rights: | OPEN |
| رقم الانضمام: | edsair.doi.dedup.....0fb4092dc2dbbb3fec19567373d62456 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | OpenAIRE |
| تدمد: | 2169897X 21698996 |
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