Can Lagrangian Extrapolation of Radar Fields Be Used for Precipitation Nowcasting over Complex Alpine Orography?
| العنوان: | Can Lagrangian Extrapolation of Radar Fields Be Used for Precipitation Nowcasting over Complex Alpine Orography? |
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| المؤلفون: | Pradeep V. Mandapaka, Urs Germann, Alessandro Hering, Luca Panziera |
| المصدر: | Weather and Forecasting |
| سنة النشر: | 2012 |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | Maple, Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Meteorology, Nowcasting, 0207 environmental engineering, Extrapolation, 02 engineering and technology, engineering.material, Numerical weather prediction, 01 natural sciences, Forecast verification, law.invention, 13. Climate action, law, Climatology, Quantitative precipitation forecast, engineering, Environmental science, Radar, Science::Physics::Meteorology and climatology [DRNTU], 020701 environmental engineering, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Orographic lift |
| الوصف: | In this study, a Lagrangian radar echo extrapolation scheme (MAPLE) was tested for use in very short-term forecasting of precipitation over a complex orographic region. The high-resolution forecasts from MAPLE for lead times of 5 min–5 h are evaluated against the radar observations for 20 summer rainfall events by employing a series of categorical, continuous, and neighborhood evaluation techniques. The verification results are then compared with those from Eulerian persistence and high-resolution numerical weather prediction model [the Consortium for Small-scale Modeling model (COSMO2)] forecasts. The forecasts from the MAPLE model clearly outperformed Eulerian persistence forecasts for all the lead times, and had better skill compared to COSMO2 up to lead time of 3 h on average. The results also showed that the predictability achieved from the MAPLE model depends on the spatial structure of the precipitation patterns. This study is a first implementation of the MAPLE model over a complex Alpine region. In addition to comprehensive evaluation of precipitation forecast products, some open questions related to the nowcasting of rainfall over a complex terrain are discussed. |
| وصف الملف: | application/pdf |
| اللغة: | English |
| تدمد: | 1520-0434 0882-8156 |
| DOI: | 10.1175/WAF-D-11-00050.1 |
| URL الوصول: | https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::0d72f8ca98fc84baf4f3a04339de5c9a |
| Rights: | OPEN |
| رقم الانضمام: | edsair.doi.dedup.....0d72f8ca98fc84baf4f3a04339de5c9a |
| قاعدة البيانات: | OpenAIRE |
| تدمد: | 15200434 08828156 |
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| DOI: | 10.1175/WAF-D-11-00050.1 |