Conditions for Stabilization of Average Global Surface Temperature at the Levels of +2°C and +1.5°C by the Geoengineering Method Based on Stratospheric Aerosols
| العنوان: | Conditions for Stabilization of Average Global Surface Temperature at the Levels of +2°C and +1.5°C by the Geoengineering Method Based on Stratospheric Aerosols |
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| المؤلفون: | A. P. Revokatova, S. V. Kostrykin, A. G. Ryaboshapko, I. O. Bushmelev, V.A. Ginzburg |
| المصدر: | Russian Meteorology and Hydrology. 45:345-352 |
| بيانات النشر: | Allerton Press, 2020. |
| سنة النشر: | 2020 |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | Fluid Flow and Transfer Processes, Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Global temperature, 010505 oceanography, business.industry, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, Greenhouse gas, Environmental science, Geoengineering, business, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Water Science and Technology |
| الوصف: | The method of stratospheric aerosols (SA) is considered. This is one of the geoengineering methods, which can be used as a supplementary method to stabilize global temperature at the levels accepted by the Paris Agreement in 2015. It is shown that the application of the SA method could keep global temperature at the levels of +2 and +1.5°С above the preindustrial value, which is calculated in the present paper as the mean over the period of 1800–1850. Maintaining global temperature below +2°С till the end of the 21st century under the most conservative greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP8.5) could require applying the method of stratospheric aerosols in 2041. The stabilization of global temperature at the level of +1.5°С under the same scenario could require the earlier start the SA method application, in 2023. The maximum value of the annual emission of sulfur compounds reached in 2100 under the worst scenarios of greenhouse gas concentration growth will be within the range of 2–5 Mt S, which is several times lower than the Pinatubo SO2 emission in 1991. The model simulations demonstrate that the stabilization of global temperature at the level of +1.5°С by solar radiation modification methods alone is almost unreal. In this case, it would be necessary to start the application of the SA method in three years. |
| تدمد: | 1934-8096 1068-3739 |
| DOI: | 10.3103/s1068373920050052 |
| URL الوصول: | https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::f6bc3ed4510c9fe41b02ff6f9f83c2ce https://doi.org/10.3103/s1068373920050052 |
| Rights: | CLOSED |
| رقم الانضمام: | edsair.doi...........f6bc3ed4510c9fe41b02ff6f9f83c2ce |
| قاعدة البيانات: | OpenAIRE |
| تدمد: | 19348096 10683739 |
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| DOI: | 10.3103/s1068373920050052 |