Purpose To evaluate dry-eye manifestations after photorefractive keratectomy (PRK) and laser in situ keratomileusis (LASIK) and determine the incidence and predictive factors of chronic dry eye using a set of dry-eye criteria. Setting Walter Reed Army Medical Center, Washington, DC, USA. Design Prospective, non-randomized clinical study. Methods Dry-eye evaluation was performed before and after surgery. Main outcome measures included dry-eye manifestations, incidence, and predictive factors of chronic dry eye. Results This study comprised 143 active-duty U.S. Army personnel, ages 29.9 ± 5.2 years, with myopia or myopic astigmatism (manifest spherical equivalent −3.83 ± 1.96 diopters) having PRK or LASIK. Schirmer scores, corneal sensitivity, ocular surface staining, surface regularity index, and responses to dry-eye questionnaire significantly changed over time after PRK. After LASIK, significant changes were observed in tear breakup time, corneal sensitivity, ocular surface staining, and responses to questionnaire. Twelve months postoperatively, 5.0% of PRK and 0.8% of LASIK participants developed chronic dry eye. Regression analysis showed that pre-operatively lower Schirmer score will significantly influence development of chronic dry eye after PRK, whereas preoperatively, lower Schirmer score or higher ocular surface staining score will significantly influence the occurrence of chronic dry eye after LASIK. Conclusions Chronic dry eye was uncommon after PRK and LASIK. Ocular surface and tear-film characteristics during pre-operative examination might help to predict chronic dry-eye development in PRK and LASIK. Financial Disclosure The authors have no financial interest in any product, drug, instrument, or equipment discussed in this manuscript.