PEMODELAN PARAMETRIK KURVA PERTUMBUHAN EPIDEMI COVID-19 DI INDONESIA
| العنوان: | PEMODELAN PARAMETRIK KURVA PERTUMBUHAN EPIDEMI COVID-19 DI INDONESIA |
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| المؤلفون: | Muhammad Fajar, Badan Pusat Statistik |
| المصدر: | Jurnal Matematika dan Sains. 25:45-48 |
| بيانات النشر: | The Institute for Research and Community Services (LPPM) ITB, 2020. |
| سنة النشر: | 2020 |
| الوصف: | The purpose of this study is to carry out parametric modeling of the COVID-19 epidemic growth curve so that the maximum value of the cumulative COVID-19 case and the time when it reaches that maximum point can be obtained. The data used in this study is the cumulative number of COVID-19 positive confirmed cases originating from www.covid19.go.id. The method used in this study is fitting data with the Logistic and Gompertz models. The results obtained from this study are (1) the Logistic and Gompertz mod-els are very fit in modeling the COVID-19 epidemic growth curve, indicated from the value of R2 (coefficient of determination) which reaches more than 99%, (2) From the Logistics model it is obtained that the estimated amount of the maximum cumulative case at the end of the COVID-19 epidemic is 7,714 positive confirmed cases, achieved in about 82 days (22 May 2020) from 2 March 2020 when the first positive COVID-19 case was announced by the Government. (3) From the Gompertz model, it is ob-tained that the estimated maximum cumulative case at the end of the COVID-19 epidemic is 33,975 positive confirmed cases, achieved in about 152 days (30 July 2020) from 2 March 2020 when the first positive COVID-19 case was announced by the Government. From this finding, the results of this study can be used as input to the Government to take steps in controlling the spread of COVID-19 |
| تدمد: | 2442-7349 0854-5154 |
| DOI: | 10.5614/jms.2020.25.2.4 |
| URL الوصول: | https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::d47a29cd84c01632ad9f5523985ed77e https://doi.org/10.5614/jms.2020.25.2.4 |
| رقم الانضمام: | edsair.doi...........d47a29cd84c01632ad9f5523985ed77e |
| قاعدة البيانات: | OpenAIRE |
| تدمد: | 24427349 08545154 |
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| DOI: | 10.5614/jms.2020.25.2.4 |