Lagged Outcomes, Lagged Predictors, and Lagged Errors: A Clarification on Common Factors
| العنوان: | Lagged Outcomes, Lagged Predictors, and Lagged Errors: A Clarification on Common Factors |
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| المؤلفون: | Scott J. Cook, Clayton Webb |
| المصدر: | Political Analysis. 29:561-569 |
| بيانات النشر: | Cambridge University Press (CUP), 2021. |
| سنة النشر: | 2021 |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | 021110 strategic, defence & security studies, Variables, Sociology and Political Science, Process (engineering), media_common.quotation_subject, 05 social sciences, 0211 other engineering and technologies, 02 engineering and technology, Specification testing, Wald test, Outcome (game theory), 0506 political science, Test (assessment), Bias of an estimator, Political Science and International Relations, 050602 political science & public administration, Econometrics, Serial dependence, media_common |
| الوصف: | Debate on the use of lagged dependent variables has a long history in political science. The latest contribution to this discussion is Wilkins (2018, Political Science Research and Methods, 6, 393–411), which advocates the use of an ADL(2,1) model when there is serial dependence in the outcome and disturbance. While this specification does offer some insurance against serially correlated disturbances, this is never the best (linear unbiased estimator) approach and should not be pursued as a general strategy. First, this strategy is only appropriate when the data-generating process (DGP) actually implies a more parsimonious model. Second, when this is not the DGP—e.g., lags of the predictors have independent effects—this strategy mischaracterizes the dynamic process. We clarify this issue and detail a Wald test that can be used to evaluate the appropriateness of the Wilkins approach. In general, we argue that researchers need to always: (i) ensure models are dynamically complete and (ii) test whether more restrictive models are appropriate. |
| تدمد: | 1476-4989 1047-1987 |
| DOI: | 10.1017/pan.2020.53 |
| URL الوصول: | https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::b4bd045ca9bcdb9350b7bee167014d29 https://doi.org/10.1017/pan.2020.53 |
| Rights: | CLOSED |
| رقم الانضمام: | edsair.doi...........b4bd045ca9bcdb9350b7bee167014d29 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | OpenAIRE |
| تدمد: | 14764989 10471987 |
|---|---|
| DOI: | 10.1017/pan.2020.53 |