Assessing ambitious nature conservation strategies within a 2 degree warmer and food-secure world

التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
العنوان: Assessing ambitious nature conservation strategies within a 2 degree warmer and food-secure world
المؤلفون: Michel Bakkenes, J.W. Meijer, Andrzej Tabeau, Marco Immovilli, J.R.M. Alkemade, Aafke M. Schipper, Elke Stehfest, Jelle P. Hilbers, Marcel Kok, Willem-Jan van Zeist, Jan H. Janse
بيانات النشر: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, 2020.
سنة النشر: 2020
مصطلحات موضوعية: Food security, Climate change mitigation, Natural resource economics, Global warming, Sustainability, Biodiversity, Business, Red List Index, Global biodiversity, Ecosystem services
الوصف: Global biodiversity is projected to further decline under a wide range of future socio-economic development pathways, even in sustainability oriented scenarios. This raises the question how biodiversity can be put on a path to recovery, the core challenge for the CBD post-2020 global biodiversity framework. We designed two contrasting, ambitious global conservation strategies, ‘Half Earth’ (HE) and ‘Sharing the Planet’ (SP), and evaluated their ability to restore terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity and to provide ecosystem services while also mitigating climate change and ensuring food security. We applied the integrated assessment framework IMAGE with the GLOBIO biodiversity model, using the ‘Middle of the Road’ Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP2) with its projected human population growth as baseline.We found that both conservation strategies result in a reduction in the loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services globally, but without additional measures to achieve effective climate mitigation they will be insufficient to restore biodiversity. The HE strategy performs better for terrestrial biodiversity protection (biodiversity intactness (MSA), Red List Index, geometric mean abundance) in currently still natural regions, reflecting global conservation priorities. The SP strategy yields more improvements for biodiversity in human-used areas, aquatic biodiversity and for regulating ecosystem services (pest control, pollination, erosion control), reflecting regional priorities. However, ‘conservation only’ scenarios show a considerable increase in food security risks (especially in Sub-Saharan Africa) compared to the baseline and limited reduction of global temperature increase. Only when conservation strategies are combined with climate change mitigation efforts and additional actions especially in the agricultural and energy system into a portfolio of ‘integrated sustainability measures’, both conservation strategies result in restoring biodiversity to current values or even some improvement, while keeping global warming below two degrees and keeping food security risks below baseline. Minimizing food wastes and reducing consumption of animal products will be crucial.
DOI: 10.1101/2020.08.04.236489
URL الوصول: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::77c3132b5a117c08911845a1fb224ba4
https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.08.04.236489
رقم الانضمام: edsair.doi...........77c3132b5a117c08911845a1fb224ba4
قاعدة البيانات: OpenAIRE
الوصف
DOI:10.1101/2020.08.04.236489