The Development and Evaluation of a Statistical–Dynamical Tropical Cyclone Genesis Guidance Tool
| العنوان: | The Development and Evaluation of a Statistical–Dynamical Tropical Cyclone Genesis Guidance Tool |
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| المؤلفون: | Joshua H. Cossuth, Daniel J. Halperin, Henry E. Fuelberg, Robert E. Hart |
| المصدر: | Weather and Forecasting. 32:27-46 |
| بيانات النشر: | American Meteorological Society, 2016. |
| سنة النشر: | 2016 |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | Global Forecast System, Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Integrated Forecast System, Meteorology, Computer science, Probabilistic logic, Navy Global Environmental Model, Regression analysis, 01 natural sciences, 010104 statistics & probability, Global Environmental Multiscale Model, Tropical cyclone forecast model, 0101 mathematics, Tropical cyclone, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences |
| الوصف: | The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has stated that guidance on tropical cyclone (TC) genesis is an operational forecast improvement need, particularly since numerical weather prediction models produce TC-like features and operationally required forecast lead times recently have increased. Using previously defined criteria for TC genesis in global models, this study bias corrects TC genesis forecasts from global models using multiple logistic regression. The derived regression equations provide 48- and 120-h probabilistic genesis forecasts for each TC genesis event that occurs in the Environment Canada Global Environmental Multiscale Model (CMC), the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS), and the Met Office's global model (UKMET). Results show select global model output variables are good discriminators between successful and unsuccessful TC genesis forecasts. Independent verification of the regression-based probabilistic genesis forecasts during 2014 and 2015 are presented. Brier scores and reliability diagrams indicate that the forecasts generally are well calibrated and can be used as guidance for NHC’s Tropical Weather Outlook product. The regression-based TC genesis forecasts are available in real time online. |
| تدمد: | 1520-0434 0882-8156 |
| DOI: | 10.1175/waf-d-16-0072.1 |
| URL الوصول: | https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::7114dcdf81262518f40b84418ce86c5d https://doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-16-0072.1 |
| Rights: | OPEN |
| رقم الانضمام: | edsair.doi...........7114dcdf81262518f40b84418ce86c5d |
| قاعدة البيانات: | OpenAIRE |
| تدمد: | 15200434 08828156 |
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| DOI: | 10.1175/waf-d-16-0072.1 |