| الوصف: |
Land degradation is a biophysical process with important impacts on society, economy and policy. Areas affected by land degradation do not provide services in quality and with capacity to full-field the communities that depends on them (Amaya-Romero et al., 2015 ; Beyene, 2015 ; Lanckriet et al., 2015). Agricultural activities are one of the main causes of land degradation (Kraaijvanger and Veldkamp, 2015), especially when they decrease soil organic matter (SOM), a crucial element for soil fertility. In temperate areas, the critical level of SOM concentration in agricultural soils is 3.4%. Below this level there is a potential decrease of soil quality (Loveland and Weeb, 2003). However, no previous work was carried out in other environments, such as the Mediterranean. The spatial distribution of potential degraded land is important to be identified and mapped, in order to identify the areas that need restoration (Brevik et al., 2016 ; Pereira et al., 2017). The aim of this work is to assess the spatial distribution of areas with evidences of land degradation (SOM bellow 3.4%) using probability maps in an organic farm located in Croatia. In order to find the best method, we compared several probability methods, such as Ordinary Kriging (OK), Simple Kriging (SK), Universal Kriging (UK), Indicator Kriging (IK), Probability Kriging (PK) and Disjunctive Kriging (DK). The study area is located on the Istria peninsula (45 3’ N ; 14 2’ E), with a total area of 182 ha. One hundred eighty-two soil samples (0-30 cm) were collected during July of 2015 and SOM was assessed using wet combustion procedure. The assessment of the best probability method was carried out using leave one out cross validation method. The probability method with the lowest Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) was the most accurate. The results showed that the best method to predict the probability of potential land degradation was SK with an RMSE of 0.635, followed by DK (RMSE=0.636), UK (RMSE=0.660), OK (RMSE=0.660), IK (RMSE=0.722) and PK (RMSE=1.661). According to the most accurate method, it is observed that the majority of the area studied has a high probability to be degraded. Measures are needed to restore this area. |