التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
| العنوان: |
Extreme Space Weather Impacts on GNSS Timing Signals for Electricity Grid Management. |
| المؤلفون: |
Etchells, T., Aplin, K. L., Berthoud, L., Kalavana, A., Larkins, A. |
| المصدر: |
Space Weather: The International Journal of Research & Applications; Oct2024, Vol. 22 Issue 10, p1-12, 12p |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: |
GLOBAL Positioning System, SOLAR radio bursts, EXTREME value theory, EXTREME weather, SPACE environment |
| مستخلص: |
Extreme space weather events can have serious impacts on critical infrastructure, including Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). The use of GNSS, particularly as sources of accurate timing signals, is becoming more widespread, with one example being the measurement of electricity grid frequency and phase information to aid grid management and stability. Understanding the likelihood of extreme space weather impacts on GNSS timing signals is therefore becoming vital to maintain national electricity grid resilience. This study determines critical intensity thresholds above which the complete failure of a GNSS based timing system may occur. Solar radio bursts are identified as a simple example to investigate in more detail. The probability of occurrence of an extreme space weather event with an intensity equal to or greater than the critical intensity is estimated. Both a power law and extreme value theory were used to evaluate recurrence probabilities based on historical event frequencies. The probability was estimated to be between 3%–12% per decade to cause the complete failure of any GNSS‐based timing system. Plain Language Summary: Society is increasingly reliant on satellite technologies for a wide range of applications. If a huge space weather event were to impact the Earth today, it would likely have catastrophic impacts across many modern technologies including satellites and satellite systems, communications, and electricity grids. Here we assess the probabilities that intense solar events may affect timings derived from Global Navigation Satellite System (of which one commonly used example is the Global Positioning System, or GPS). These timing signals are increasingly used in electricity grid management. Solar radio bursts are used as an example, since they can overwhelm the weak GNSS signal. Statistical methods were employed to assess 46 years of solar radio burst data. Our findings suggest a 3%–12% probability per decade of an event large enough to disrupt the UK electricity grid. Key Points: Extreme space weather can disrupt Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) timing signals, an increasingly critical aspect of the electricity distribution networkFirst case study illustrating degradation of GNSS timing from solar radio burstsLikelihood of a significantly disruptive event is constrained at 3%–12% per decade [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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| قاعدة البيانات: |
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