التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
| العنوان: |
Reliability Forecasting for Simulation-based Workforce Planning |
| المؤلفون: |
Papathanasiou, M. (author) |
| المساهمون: |
Verbraeck, A. (mentor), Cunningham, S.W. (mentor), Warnier, M. (mentor), Wenzler, I. (mentor), Fumarola, M. (mentor) |
| سنة النشر: |
2016 |
| المجموعة: |
Delft University of Technology: Institutional Repository |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: |
Workforce Planning, Reliability Forecasting, Machine Failures, Time Series Analysis |
| الوصف: |
The problem owner of the present study is a consulting company that provides simulation-based workforce planning advice to a big manufacturing firm XYZ. The latter pertains the number of engineers of various skill levels that are needed for the repair of health care equipment in hospitals of a large country. The prediction of machine failures (reliability forecasting) is a crucial input to the simulations that affects the quality of the business advice. Currently, the problem owner follows a reliability forecasting approach based on lifetime models following the HPP [1]. Nevertheless, this practice has several limitations as: i) the predictive performance is not always satisfactory due to data overfitting (Liang, 2011), ii) real-world systems do not generally comply with the HPP traits (Kurien, Sekhon & Chawla, 1993), namely constant failure rates of a memoryless failure process, while reliability is non-linear and complex due to a bunch of factors (Chatterjee & Bandopadhyay, 2012). In the view of the above, the problem owner needs to increase the efficiency of workforce planning that will finally lead to cost savings for firm XYZ. It is believed that a more efficient planning can be achieved through the improvement of the forecasting approach. Forecasting should fulfil certain requirements, namely it should predict the failure patterns of multiple machines, at an acceptable level of accuracy, with a high degree of automation. Thus, the study’s research objective is defined as: to provide an automated forecasting framework that detects and predicts the failure patterns of multiple machines with acceptable accuracy. For achieving the research objective, firstly, a clarification of the forecasting requirements is done through a semi-structured interview with the problem owner. Among others, it is clarified that accuracy is the hourly absolute deviation between the actual and the forecasted inter-failure time of a machine (MAE), and it concerns only its next failure (one-step ahead forecasting). ... |
| نوع الوثيقة: |
master thesis |
| اللغة: |
English |
| Relation: |
http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:14acc987-bf93-4439-a3b2-634615d7f449 |
| الاتاحة: |
http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:14acc987-bf93-4439-a3b2-634615d7f449 |
| Rights: |
(c) 2016 Papathanasiou, M. |
| رقم الانضمام: |
edsbas.F9470449 |
| قاعدة البيانات: |
BASE |