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Determination of French influenza outbreaks periods between 1985 and 2011 through a web-based Delphi method

التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
العنوان: Determination of French influenza outbreaks periods between 1985 and 2011 through a web-based Delphi method
المؤلفون: M. Debin, C. Souty, C. Turbelin, T. Blanchon, P. -Y. Boëlle, T. H. Hanslik, G. Hejblum, Y. Le Strat, F. Quintus, A. Falchi, H Akwar, V Alexandrescu, J Baumbach, E Blozik, S Bonovas, R Born, A Carnahan, R Cojocaru, C Delgado, G Donker, D Floret, T Georgieva, R Guiomar, S Jiménez-Jorge, M Joyce, N Korsun, N Kupreviciene, A Kurchatova, J Kyncl, D Levy-Bruhl, A Mayet, T Melillo, M Moore, A Mosnier, A Mounts, J O'Donnell, D R Olson, H Partouche, P Pechirra, P Petkovic, F Pregliasco, T Pumarola Suñe, M Rozsa, O Sadikova, S Sargsyan, D Schanzer, P Sebastiani, V Shimanovich, M Socan, C Steffen, I Thomas, Y Thomas, D Ulqinaku, E Utegenova, M van der Sande, A T Vega Alonso, Q Wang, H Zhao, O Zurriaga
المساهمون: M. Debin, C. Souty, C. Turbelin, T. Blanchon, P.-. Boëlle, T.H. Hanslik, G. Hejblum, Y. Le Strat, F. Quintu, A. Falchi, H. Akwar, V. Alexandrescu, J. Baumbach, E. Blozik, S. Bonova, R. Born, A. Carnahan, R. Cojocaru, C. Delgado, G. Donker, D. Floret, T. Georgieva, R. Guiomar, S. Jiménez-Jorge, M. Joyce, N. Korsun, N. Kupreviciene, A. Kurchatova, J. Kyncl, D. Levy-Bruhl, A. Mayet, T. Melillo, M. Moore, A. Mosnier, A. Mount, J. O'Donnell, D. R Olson, H. Partouche, P. Pechirra, P. Petkovic, F. Pregliasco, T. Pumarola Suñe, M. Rozsa, O. Sadikova, S. Sargsyan, D. Schanzer, P. Sebastiani, V. Shimanovich, M. Socan, C. Steffen, I. Thoma, Y. Thoma, D. Ulqinaku, E. Utegenova, M. van der Sande, A. T Vega Alonso, Q. Wang, H. Zhao, O. Zurriaga
بيانات النشر: BioMed Central
سنة النشر: 2013
المجموعة: The University of Milan: Archivio Istituzionale della Ricerca (AIR)
مصطلحات موضوعية: Influenza, Consensu, Delphi technique, Epidemic, Information science, Surveillance, Settore MED/42 - Igiene Generale e Applicata
الوصف: Background: Assessing the accuracy of influenza epidemic periods determined by statistical models is important to improve the performance of algorithms used in real-time syndromic surveillance systems. This is a difficult problem to address in the absence of a reliable gold standard. The objective of this study is to establish an expert-based determination of the start and the end of influenza epidemics in France. Methods. A three-round international web-based Delphi survey was proposed to 288 eligible influenza experts. Fifty-seven (20%) experts completed the three-rounds of the study. The experts were invited to indicate the starting and the ending week of influenza epidemics, on 32 time-series graphs of influenza seasons drawn using data from the French Sentinelles Network (Influenza-like illness incidence rates) and virological data from the WHO-FluNet. Twenty-six of 32 time-series graphs proposed corresponded to each of the French influenza seasons observed between 1985 and 2011. Six influenza seasons were proposed twice at each round to measure variation among expert responses. Results: We obtained consensual results for 88% (23/26) of the epidemic periods. In two or three rounds (depending on the season) answers gathered around modes, and the internal control demonstrated a good reproducibility of the answers. Virological data did not appear to have a significant impact on the answers or the level of consensus, except for a season with a major mismatch between virological and incidence data timings. Conclusions: Thanks to this international web-based Delphi survey, we obtained reproducible, stable and consensual results for the majority of the French influenza epidemic curves analysed. The detailed curves together with the estimates from the Delphi study could be a helpful tool for assessing the performance of statistical outbreak detection methods, in order to optimize them.
نوع الوثيقة: article in journal/newspaper
اللغة: English
Relation: info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pmid/24364926; info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/WOS:000331820400001; volume:13; issue:1; firstpage:1; lastpage:8; numberofpages:8; journal:BMC MEDICAL INFORMATICS AND DECISION MAKING; https://hdl.handle.net/2434/819774; info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-84890825222
DOI: 10.1186/1472-6947-13-138
الاتاحة: https://hdl.handle.net/2434/819774
https://doi.org/10.1186/1472-6947-13-138
Rights: info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
رقم الانضمام: edsbas.F4EA0570
قاعدة البيانات: BASE
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Georgieva ) ) ) [81] => Array ( [PersonEntity] => Array ( [Name] => Array ( [NameFull] => R. Guiomar ) ) ) [82] => Array ( [PersonEntity] => Array ( [Name] => Array ( [NameFull] => S. Jiménez-Jorge ) ) ) [83] => Array ( [PersonEntity] => Array ( [Name] => Array ( [NameFull] => M. Joyce ) ) ) [84] => Array ( [PersonEntity] => Array ( [Name] => Array ( [NameFull] => N. Korsun ) ) ) [85] => Array ( [PersonEntity] => Array ( [Name] => Array ( [NameFull] => N. Kupreviciene ) ) ) [86] => Array ( [PersonEntity] => Array ( [Name] => Array ( [NameFull] => A. Kurchatova ) ) ) [87] => Array ( [PersonEntity] => Array ( [Name] => Array ( [NameFull] => J. Kyncl ) ) ) [88] => Array ( [PersonEntity] => Array ( [Name] => Array ( [NameFull] => D. Levy-Bruhl ) ) ) [89] => Array ( [PersonEntity] => Array ( [Name] => Array ( [NameFull] => A. Mayet ) ) ) [90] => Array ( [PersonEntity] => Array ( [Name] => Array ( [NameFull] => T. Melillo ) ) ) [91] => Array ( [PersonEntity] => Array ( [Name] => Array ( [NameFull] => M. Moore ) ) ) [92] => Array ( [PersonEntity] => Array ( [Name] => Array ( [NameFull] => A. Mosnier ) ) ) [93] => Array ( [PersonEntity] => Array ( [Name] => Array ( [NameFull] => A. Mount ) ) ) [94] => Array ( [PersonEntity] => Array ( [Name] => Array ( [NameFull] => J. O'Donnell ) ) ) [95] => Array ( [PersonEntity] => Array ( [Name] => Array ( [NameFull] => D. R Olson ) ) ) [96] => Array ( [PersonEntity] => Array ( [Name] => Array ( [NameFull] => H. Partouche ) ) ) [97] => Array ( [PersonEntity] => Array ( [Name] => Array ( [NameFull] => P. Pechirra ) ) ) [98] => Array ( [PersonEntity] => Array ( [Name] => Array ( [NameFull] => P. Petkovic ) ) ) [99] => Array ( [PersonEntity] => Array ( [Name] => Array ( [NameFull] => F. Pregliasco ) ) ) [100] => Array ( [PersonEntity] => Array ( [Name] => Array ( [NameFull] => T. 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Thoma ) ) ) [111] => Array ( [PersonEntity] => Array ( [Name] => Array ( [NameFull] => D. Ulqinaku ) ) ) [112] => Array ( [PersonEntity] => Array ( [Name] => Array ( [NameFull] => E. Utegenova ) ) ) [113] => Array ( [PersonEntity] => Array ( [Name] => Array ( [NameFull] => M. van der Sande ) ) ) [114] => Array ( [PersonEntity] => Array ( [Name] => Array ( [NameFull] => A. T Vega Alonso ) ) ) [115] => Array ( [PersonEntity] => Array ( [Name] => Array ( [NameFull] => Q. Wang ) ) ) [116] => Array ( [PersonEntity] => Array ( [Name] => Array ( [NameFull] => H. Zhao ) ) ) [117] => Array ( [PersonEntity] => Array ( [Name] => Array ( [NameFull] => O. Zurriaga ) ) ) ) [IsPartOfRelationships] => Array ( [0] => Array ( [BibEntity] => Array ( [Dates] => Array ( [0] => Array ( [D] => 01 [M] => 01 [Type] => published [Y] => 2013 ) ) [Identifiers] => Array ( [0] => Array ( [Type] => issn-locals [Value] => edsbas ) [1] => Array ( [Type] => issn-locals [Value] => edsbas.oa ) ) ) ) ) ) )
IllustrationInfo