Report
A General Bayesian Model for Heteroskedastic Data with Fully Conjugate Full-Conditional Distributions
| العنوان: | A General Bayesian Model for Heteroskedastic Data with Fully Conjugate Full-Conditional Distributions |
|---|---|
| المؤلفون: | Parker, Paul A., Holan, Scott H., Wills, Skye A. |
| سنة النشر: | 2020 |
| المجموعة: | Statistics |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | Statistics - Methodology, Statistics - Computation |
| الوصف: | Models for heteroskedastic data are relevant in a wide variety of applications ranging from financial time series to environmental statistics. However, the topic of modeling the variance function conditionally has not seen near as much attention as modeling the mean. Volatility models have been used in specific applications, but these models can be difficult to fit in a Bayesian setting due to posterior distributions that are challenging to sample from efficiently. In this work, we introduce a general model for heteroskedastic data. This approach models the conditional variance in a mixed model approach as a function of any desired covariates or random effects. We rely on new distribution theory in order to construct priors that yield fully conjugate full conditional distributions. Thus, our approach can easily be fit via Gibbs sampling. Furthermore, we extend the model to a deep learning approach that can provide highly accurate estimates for time dependent data. We also provide an extension for heavy-tailed data. We illustrate our methodology via three applications. The first application utilizes a high dimensional soil dataset with inherent spatial dependence. The second application involves modeling of asset volatility. The third application focuses on clinical trial data for creatinine. |
| نوع الوثيقة: | Working Paper |
| URL الوصول: | http://arxiv.org/abs/2009.13636 |
| رقم الانضمام: | edsarx.2009.13636 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | arXiv |
| ResultId |
1 |
|---|---|
| Header |
edsarx arXiv edsarx.2009.13636 1008 3 Report report 1007.72637939453 |
| PLink |
https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&scope=site&db=edsarx&AN=edsarx.2009.13636&custid=s6537998&authtype=sso |
| FullText |
Array
(
[Availability] => 0
)
Array ( [0] => Array ( [Url] => http://arxiv.org/abs/2009.13636 [Name] => EDS - Arxiv [Category] => fullText [Text] => View record in Arxiv [MouseOverText] => View record in Arxiv ) ) |
| Items |
Array
(
[Name] => Title
[Label] => Title
[Group] => Ti
[Data] => A General Bayesian Model for Heteroskedastic Data with Fully Conjugate Full-Conditional Distributions
)
Array ( [Name] => Author [Label] => Authors [Group] => Au [Data] => <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Parker%2C+Paul+A%2E%22">Parker, Paul A.</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Holan%2C+Scott+H%2E%22">Holan, Scott H.</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Wills%2C+Skye+A%2E%22">Wills, Skye A.</searchLink> ) Array ( [Name] => DatePubCY [Label] => Publication Year [Group] => Date [Data] => 2020 ) Array ( [Name] => Subset [Label] => Collection [Group] => HoldingsInfo [Data] => Statistics ) Array ( [Name] => Subject [Label] => Subject Terms [Group] => Su [Data] => <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Statistics+-+Methodology%22">Statistics - Methodology</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Statistics+-+Computation%22">Statistics - Computation</searchLink> ) Array ( [Name] => Abstract [Label] => Description [Group] => Ab [Data] => Models for heteroskedastic data are relevant in a wide variety of applications ranging from financial time series to environmental statistics. However, the topic of modeling the variance function conditionally has not seen near as much attention as modeling the mean. Volatility models have been used in specific applications, but these models can be difficult to fit in a Bayesian setting due to posterior distributions that are challenging to sample from efficiently. In this work, we introduce a general model for heteroskedastic data. This approach models the conditional variance in a mixed model approach as a function of any desired covariates or random effects. We rely on new distribution theory in order to construct priors that yield fully conjugate full conditional distributions. Thus, our approach can easily be fit via Gibbs sampling. Furthermore, we extend the model to a deep learning approach that can provide highly accurate estimates for time dependent data. We also provide an extension for heavy-tailed data. We illustrate our methodology via three applications. The first application utilizes a high dimensional soil dataset with inherent spatial dependence. The second application involves modeling of asset volatility. The third application focuses on clinical trial data for creatinine. ) Array ( [Name] => TypeDocument [Label] => Document Type [Group] => TypDoc [Data] => Working Paper ) Array ( [Name] => URL [Label] => Access URL [Group] => URL [Data] => <link linkTarget="URL" linkTerm="http://arxiv.org/abs/2009.13636" linkWindow="_blank">http://arxiv.org/abs/2009.13636</link> ) Array ( [Name] => AN [Label] => Accession Number [Group] => ID [Data] => edsarx.2009.13636 ) |
| RecordInfo |
Array
(
[BibEntity] => Array
(
[Subjects] => Array
(
[0] => Array
(
[SubjectFull] => Statistics - Methodology
[Type] => general
)
[1] => Array
(
[SubjectFull] => Statistics - Computation
[Type] => general
)
)
[Titles] => Array
(
[0] => Array
(
[TitleFull] => A General Bayesian Model for Heteroskedastic Data with Fully Conjugate Full-Conditional Distributions
[Type] => main
)
)
)
[BibRelationships] => Array
(
[HasContributorRelationships] => Array
(
[0] => Array
(
[PersonEntity] => Array
(
[Name] => Array
(
[NameFull] => Parker, Paul A.
)
)
)
[1] => Array
(
[PersonEntity] => Array
(
[Name] => Array
(
[NameFull] => Holan, Scott H.
)
)
)
[2] => Array
(
[PersonEntity] => Array
(
[Name] => Array
(
[NameFull] => Wills, Skye A.
)
)
)
)
[IsPartOfRelationships] => Array
(
[0] => Array
(
[BibEntity] => Array
(
[Dates] => Array
(
[0] => Array
(
[D] => 28
[M] => 09
[Type] => published
[Y] => 2020
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
|
| IllustrationInfo |